September brings dramatic shifts across global shipping markets. From southern Africa’s project cargo boom to containership oversupply threatening carrier profitability through 2030, the logistics landscape is experiencing unprecedented volatility.
Meanwhile, trade policy changes are reshaping airfreight demand patterns, and steel tariff reforms signal major regulatory shifts ahead. Our September newsletter delivers the strategic insights you need to navigate these complex currents.
At NATCO, we’re not just tracking these developments – we’re working to position our clients ahead of the disruption, because it’s how it gets there that makes the difference.
SOUTHERN AFRICA’S PROJECT CARGO BOOM TRANSFORMS REGIONAL LOGISTICS
Southern Africa is experiencing a project cargo renaissance driven by mining expansion, delayed gas developments, and renewable energy investments. Mozambique’s long-awaited LNG projects are finally gaining traction, while Namibia’s emerging oil and gas sector attracts significant logistics investment.
The ripple effects extend across the region: new smelters and refineries in Zambia and DRC promise sustained heavy-lift cargo demand, while Zimbabwe and Malawi’s mining ventures create fresh opportunities for specialized transport solutions.
However, challenges persist. Volatile commodity prices could derail projects overnight, while cross-border delays, infrastructure gaps, and regulatory complexities continue to complicate execution. The key differentiator will be logistics partners who understand both the opportunities and the obstacles.
CONTAINERSHIP ORDERBOOK HITS RECORD HIGH – OVERSUPPLY CRISIS LOOMS
The global containership orderbook has reached a staggering 10.4 million TEU – approximately one-third of the entire global fleet. This massive expansion, triggered by Red Sea disruptions and Cape routing demands, is creating a capacity tsunami that threatens to sink carrier profitability until 2030.
Carriers are deploying every tool available: blank sailings, slow steaming, and vessel lay-ups. But the mathematics are unforgiving – capacity growth is vastly outpacing demand growth. While major shipping lines use their scale to weather the storm, smaller operators face existential threats, likely accelerating industry consolidation.
The silver lining? Shippers can expect significantly lower freight rates as carriers battle for market share in an oversupplied market.
GENOA PORT CONGESTION TRIGGERS ITALIAN SUPPLY CHAIN CHAOS
Genoa’s container terminals are buckling under pressure, forcing major carriers like Hapag-Lloyd to implement emergency schedule changes through late September. The perfect storm combines rail delays, summer driver shortages, and overbooked berth slots.
Some warehouses won’t receive containers for three weeks, while services are diverting to alternative ports like Vado, adding extra mileage and costs. The Gemini alliance has dropped Genoa and La Spezia entirely from certain rotations, creating cascading delays across European networks.
PORT DISRUPTION ALERT:
GLOBAL CONGESTION HOTSPOTS
Current ports experiencing significant delays and operational disruptions:
TRADE POLICY SHIFTS RESHAPE AIRFREIGHT DEMAND PATTERNS
Airfreight faces a complex recalibration as trade policies and supply chain strategies evolve. The elimination of US de minimis exemptions on Chinese imports is driving e-commerce toward warehousing models and ocean freight, reducing direct air cargo dependency.
Simultaneously, the gradual reopening of Suez Canal routes is drawing volumes back to sea freight through improved transit times and cost advantages. US tariff pressures are accelerating supply chain diversification toward Vietnam, Thailand, and India—creating both challenges and opportunities for air cargo networks.
High-tech and AI-related shipments continue driving Asian air cargo demand, but market volatility remains extreme. Capacity could tighten rapidly if demand surges, or soften significantly if nearshoring strategies gain momentum.
AIRLINK BLOCKS MOZAMBIQUE SALES OVER $200M FUND REPATRIATION CRISIS
Regional connectivity takes a hit as Airlink suspends Mozambique ticket sales due to $200 million in blocked airline funds. Mozambique has become Africa’s largest withholder of airline earnings, creating unsustainable financial pressure on carriers.
While the government promises resolution through banking channels, no timeline exists. This crisis reflects broader challenges across Africa and the Middle East, where $1.3 billion in blocked revenues threaten airline sustainability and regional connectivity.
KENYA AIRWAYS EXPANDS LONDON GATEWAY STRATEGY
Kenya Airways’ new Nairobi-London Gatwick service adds a second London option alongside Heathrow, boosting UK capacity to 10 weekly flights. This strategic expansion strengthens East African connectivity while providing shippers more routing flexibility for European destinations.
The three-weekly service targets both tourism and trade growth, supporting Kenya’s position as an East African logistics hub.
LOGISTICS ALERT
China’s Golden Week Holiday: October 1-7, 2025
China’s National Day Golden Week holiday runs from October 1-7, 2025, celebrating the founding of the People’s Republic of China. This nationwide holiday triggers logistics shutdowns and significant supply chain disruptions.
Key impacts:
- Manufacturing facilities, ports, and customs offices close completely
- Shipping lines operate with skeleton crews and limited booking capacity
- Air freight capacity becomes critically scarce
- Rate spikes begin the week before and persist 10-14 days after resumption
- Equipment shortages and vessel delays extend weeks into October
ITAC PROPOSES STEEL INDUSTRY PROTECTION THROUGH TARIFF REFORMS
South Africa’s International Trade Administration Commission is proposing significant tariff reforms to protect the domestic steel industry from global oversupply and cheap imports. The comprehensive review suggests raising duties to WTO-bound rates, introducing rebates for non-locally produced grades, and implementing import control measures.
Key proposals include duty-free treatment for certain input products like stainless steel, integration of standards into import permits, and establishment of an industry advisory committee.
However, the response is polarised: local producers welcome protection against Chinese imports, while importers warn of higher costs, contract pressures, and potential job losses in downstream manufacturing. Many smaller firms lack the resources to contest duties or apply for rebates, creating vulnerability to retrenchments.
SARS WARNS OF “PROCESS QUOTE LETTER” PHISHING SCAM
SARS has identified a sophisticated phishing campaign using the subject line “PROCESS QUOTE LETTER” with sender addresses mimicking official eFiling notifications. The fraudulent emails direct recipients to fake websites designed to harvest personal information.
Red flags include urgent language, suspicious sender domains, and requests for immediate action on financial matters.
CRITICAL SARS NOTICES:
Notice 3437:
Sunset review initiation for anti-dumping duties on plaster boards from Thailand and Indonesia
Notice 3438:
Comprehensive tariff structure review and import surveillance system investigation for steel products under Chapters 72, 73, 82, and 83
